这是桥水基金的创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio），在08年金融危机之后做的短片。其介绍了经济运行的基本逻辑。比尔盖茨对这个视频的推荐语是这样的：

“This knowledge would help everyone as investors and citizens. Watching it for 30 minutes is a worthwhile investment."

“这些知识对每个人都有帮助，无论是投资者还是普通人；看三十分钟本身就是一个值得的投资。”

🌵 | 经济机器 | A Simple Machine

经济就像机器一样

经济就像机器一样，但是很多人却不懂得这一点，或是对经济的运行方式有着不同的观点。于是就产生了许多不必要的经济损失。The economy works like a simple machine. But many people don't understand it or they don't agree on how it works and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.

看似复杂，其实很简单

尽管经济看起来很复杂，但它的运行方式其实是非常简单和机械的。经济由几个简单的零部件和许多无数次重复的简单交易组成。

Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple, mechanical way. It's made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.

驱动经济的 3 股主要力量

这些交易首先是由人性驱动而形成，进而形成了驱动经济的 3 股主要的动力。

These transactions are above all else driven by human nature, and they creat 3 main forces that drive the economy.

1. 生产率的提高 | Productivity Growth
2. 短期债务周期 | The Short Term Debt Cycle
3. 长期债务周期 | The Long Term Debt Cycle

🌵 | 交易 | Transactions

经济其实就是交易的总和，而交易其实是一件非常简单的事情。你无时无刻不在进行交易。